Capstone
Residual land-value model
IE MRED 2026
IE MRED 2026
auto-saved · synced with city view
Residual land value · interactive
ALMA model
€1.75 bnResidual land value · densified
4,615,708 m²e GFA
€378 / m²e
A residual land-value model for the ALMA densification proposal. Adjust density and the affordable mix for Phase I and Phases II–III; land value is what remains after construction, urbanisation, the municipal cession and the developer's 25 % margin — blended across affordable and free-market product, at fixed sale prices and unit costs.
Levers
Phase Iland 737,797 m² (30%) · current urbanisation
Density · GFA / developable land
0.39 m²e/m²
GFA per m² of the phase's land share (Excel basis) · proposal 0.80 · baseline 0.39
Affordable + social (% of housing)
55 %
NUP: Phase I >50 %
Phase II & IIIland 1,721,525 m² (70%) · new master plan
Density · GFA / developable land
0.39 m²e/m²
GFA per m² of the phase's land share (Excel basis) · proposal 1.05 · baseline 0.39
Affordable + social (% of housing)
61 %
NUP: Phase II & III >60 % · target ≥61 %
Blended density · GFA / developable
0.39 m²e/m²
GFA ÷ developable land (2.46 km²). Uniform baseline = 0.39. Per-phase density (above) is GFA per m² of each phase's land allotment — matches the Excel model.
Municipal cession
20 % of value
Aprovechamiento ceded to the city — Flavio model = 20 %. Statutory 10 % · stacked 30 %. Reduces developer-retained buildable value.
Parking provision · % of GFA
40 %
Share of GFA built as underground parking @ €650/m². Default 40 % (typical) · adjust freely.
ESG on land dev
10 % of works
Extra spend on land-development works (% of urbanisation).
Assumptions: prices & build costs are fixed inputs (brief); the rest are editable. Sale prices are per m² útil (= 85% of GFA). Shared drivers sync with the city view.
Sale prices · €/m² útil
Free market€
Affordable€
Economic€
Mix & efficiency
Residential · % of GFA%
Economic · auto (100 − resi)15 %
Saleable efficiency · % of GFA%
Construction & parking
New construction · €/m²€
Underground parking · €/m²€
m² per parking spacem²
Parking sale · €/space€
Sellable parking · %%
Affordable parking · % of standard%
Soft costs, overhead & margin
Soft costs · % of works%
Overhead · % of construction%
Developer gross margin%
Height effects [CTBUH]
Avg building height · floors
High-rise threshold · floors
Construction premium ≥ threshold%
Útil loss · per floor above%
Land development
Urbanisation · €/land m²€
Urbanised land · % of land%
Connecting infra · €/m²e€
Junta fee · % of land dev%
Phasing · value split (auto-normalised)
Phase I · % of value%
Phase II · % of value%
Phase III · % of value%
Total intervention area = 4.73 M m² (473 ha). Uniform baseline 0.39 → 1.85 M m²e; proposal 0.80/1.05 → 4.62 M m²e. Construction incl. kitchen (no furniture) + pool. Margin on GDV. Edit any field to test sensitivity.
Land value
€0
residual land value
net of construction, on-site infrastructure & 25% margin
net of construction, on-site infrastructure & 25% margin
€0
residual · per m²e buildable
€0
per m² of total site (incl. green reserve)
0
total m²e (GFA)
Phase I€0
Phase II & III€0
Profit vs costs
sale price − construction − developer margin
sale price − construction − developer margin
Land development costs
urbanisation · Junta · connecting — split out → leaves the residual land value
urbanisation · Junta · connecting — split out → leaves the residual land value
Land value = GDV − Construction (incl. soft) − Overhead − Urbanisation − Junta − Margin
GDV = retained GFA × saleable eff. × blended price · retained = (1 − 20 % cession)
GDV = retained GFA × saleable eff. × blended price · retained = (1 − 20 % cession)
Sales price · /m²e revenue
€0
Build cost · /m²e cost
€0
Floors (max 15)
8
Breakdown by category — nominal & %
Revenue · GDV turnover
Costs, margin & residual land
Residual land value by phase · computed per phase
Land — residual value & infrastructure cost
Residual land value
€0
per m² of land€0
per m²e buildable€0
Infrastructure cost ＋
€0
per m² of land€0
per m²e buildable€0
Market value ＝ serviced land
€0
per m² of land€0
per m²e buildable€0
Urbanisation + public / social infrastructure€0
Connecting infrastructure (transit, eastern)€0
Junta de Compensación · management fee (7% of infra)€0
ESG on land development (10% of works)€0
Total infrastructure cost€0
Infrastructure is a cost that adds up (urbanisation + networks + Junta fee + ESG on land dev) — it is not netted against the land value. Building construction (€0) is separate again.
Massing — grows with density
8 floors · 0.80 m²e/m²
Affordable + social
Free-market
Full hierarchy — every level ties out
Absolute m² at each level; children sum exactly to their parent. Bars are share of the root. Reacts to the phase ratios.
1–2 · Land · total → buildable vs not buildable
3 · Buildable floor area (GFA) · by phase & use
4 · Cesiones · public land to the city · by phase
Total development cost — by category
Every euro the developer spends (before profit & land). Grows with density — more GFA means more building and more infrastructure. Infrastructure = urbanisation + Junta + connecting, handed to the city.
Cost vs density — how development cost scales
Density on the x-axis (m²e per m² land) · cost on the y-axis. The dot marks the current blend. Holds mix & prices constant.
Per 100 m² of developable land — what you buy
One parcel normalised to 100 m². The land generates the gross buildability; the city takes its cession; you keep and sell only the rest. Then the money it makes, and how infrastructure cost compares to the residual land value — all per m².
Buildability · m²e per 100 m² land
0 m²e · FAR 0.00
Money · € per 100 m² land
Infrastructure cost · /m² land
€0
urbanisation + Junta + connecting — adds up
Residual land value · /m² land
€0
what the developable land is worth
Raw land €0 ＋ infrastructure €0 ＝ €0 all-in serviced building land · per m²
How it flows — step by step
What happens to the whole site at each stage — including where the city takes its cession.
1
Total intervention area0 m²
carve the land — 52 % developable · 48 % green reserve / corridor (Cañada Real)
2
Developable land · Phase I + Phase II & III0 m²
apply density on the phase's land share — proposal Phase I 0.80 · Phase II & III 1.05 · up to G+15
3
Buildable floor area generated (GFA)0 m²e
↓ the city takes its cession here
Ceded to the city (municipality)
0 m²e
Developer retains
0 m²e
split the retained GFA by use (85 % residential · 15 % economic)
Affordable / social
0 m²e
Free-market
0 m²e
Economic
0 m²e
sell (× price) − construction − infrastructure − Junta fee − 25 % developer margin
✓
Residual land value (whole site)€0
Financing — two phased cashflows (3 phases × 3 yr)
As the Junta de Compensación we run the land development: urbanise each phase, then sell the serviced plots to a building developer. The building developer buys the serviced land, builds and sells the homes. Each phase runs 3 years, in sequence (build-out over 9 yr).
Serviced-land transfer price = residual land value + urbanisation spent · sales lag yr
① Junta de Compensación — land development (our cashflow)
Net land result (= RLV)
€0
Peak funding (urbanisation)
€0
Cash-positive in
—
| Year | Urbanisation | Plot sales | Net | Cumulative |
|---|
② Building developer (buys serviced plots from us)
Developer profit (margin)
€0
Peak funding required
€0
Cash-positive in
—
| Year | Land buy | Build | Home sales | Net | Cumulative |
|---|
The city's view
Fiscal balance & the infrastructure the city must fund — population & density, municipal tax vs expenditure, bus / tunnel / schools / health, and a density-based metro case, all on a dedicated page with data-visualisation infographics.
Assumptions · editable inputs
Method: residual land value = GDV (net of municipal cession) − construction (incl. parking + ESG) − urbanisation − Junta fee − developer margin (25 % of GDV), computed per phase and summed. Parameters from the ALMA NUP capstone brief (IE MRED): total intervention area 4.73 M m² = developable land 2,459,320 m² (52 %) + green reserve 2,274,740 m² (48 %). Density (GFA per m² of each phase's land allotment, phases 30 / 35 / 35 % of the total area) — matches the Excel Model. Proposal Phase I 0.80 / Phase II & III 1.05 → GFA 4.62 M m²e; uniform baseline 0.39 → 1.85 M m²e; NUP allows densification up to G+15 floors. Residential 85 % (affordable Phase I 50 %, Phase II & III 61 %), economic 15 %; cesiones to city = 20 % of value units. Prices and costs are working assumptions for this model, not appraised values. Uplift compares the proposal against the uniform baseline (0.39 · 50 % affordable · 10 % cession) — the value created by densifying & redistributing.
Informational only — an internal analytical model, not an investment prospectus or a public offering of securities. Investing carries risk, including loss of capital. All figures are indicative and not guaranteed.